Electric vehicles (EVs) now cost less to operate than gas-powered cars in most U.S. markets. According to an analysis by The New York Times, EVs cost approximately $5 per 100 miles when charging at home, compared to $13 for conventional vehicles. The cost advantage is more than a consumer selling point; it’s the beginning of a significant shift in liquid fuels markets that could ease sustainable aviation fuel's most persistent challenge: economics.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has struggled with production costs that are two to four times higher than those of conventional jet fuel, a gap that recent geopolitical disruptions have temporarily narrowed but not eliminated. Limited feedstock availability, capital-intensive facilities requiring billion-dollar investments, and uncertain project economics have kept SAF at barely 1% market penetration despite mounting pressure to decarbonize aviation. But the automotive industry's transition to electric power is creating conditions that address each of these barriers simultaneously.

Market Forces Converge
More than 98% of U.S. gasoline sold at gas stations contains ethanol, and U.S. gasoline consumption is declining even as miles driven increase. This creates direct pressure on the 14 billion gallons of ethanol produced annually in the United States, primarily for gasoline blending. As EV adoption accelerates, ethanol producers face a market shift as their primary customer base is entering long-term decline.
For SAF, this is an opportunity rather than collateral damage. The automotive transition creates three simultaneous advantages for SAF production.
First, feedstock availability improves. Ethanol producers facing declining gasoline demand have a clear incentive to seek alternative markets. Even redirecting a modest fraction of current production toward jet fuel would significantly increase SAF feedstock availability. More importantly, softening demand creates downward price pressure, improving alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) economics. The threshold at which ethanol-based SAF becomes cost-competitive with conventional jet fuel depends on multiple factors, but ethanol feedstock costs represent the dominant factor in alcohol-to-jet economics. As declining gasoline demand softens ethanol pricing, the pathway toward cost-competitive SAF production becomes increasingly viable.
Second, infrastructure becomes available. Refineries configured for gasoline production face a choice: adapt or confront stranded asset risk, and a number of them have already downsized or shut down. Repurposing equipment for SAF production offers a path to maintain utilization and revenue rather than writing off capital investments. Coprocessing renewable and fossil feedstocks enables a gradual transition, reducing risk while building operational experience. The distributed refinery network can be redirected, rather than constructed.
Third, the market is demanding economic realism. As SAF projects scale and seek federal support through loan guarantees and production credits, investors and government agencies increasingly require transparent cost disclosure and credible projections. Technologies that can leverage existing infrastructure rather than require greenfield construction offer more defensible economics. This shift favors practical pathways over theoretical innovation.
There's an energy security dimension as well. Ethanol-derived fuels would be domestically produced from feedstock to final product. The U.S. already ranks among the world's top ethanol producers, with established supply chains and processing expertise concentrated in the Midwest. Converting this capacity toward aviation fuel would reduce reliance on imported petroleum and vulnerable supply routes.

Why Ethanol-Based Pathways Meet Emerging SAF Requirements
Current ASTM regulations limit SAF pathways to 50% blending with conventional jet fuel because the dominant production technology, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, or HEFA, produces only paraffinic components. Jet fuel standards require 8% to 25% aromatic molecules for engine performance and fuel system compatibility. Today, blending with fossil jet fuel is the only way to provide those aromatics.
As regulations move toward higher SAF blends and eventually 100% fully synthetic fuel, aircraft manufacturers and regulators will require fuels capable of delivering complete performance without fossil blending. This creates a new competitive advantage for technologies capable of producing both paraffinic and aromatic components. Alcohol-based pathways, particularly ethanol-to-jet, offer this flexibility. As ethanol becomes available at a lower cost due to declining gasoline demand, the economic case for ethanol pathways that can produce complete, drop-in-ready fuel strengthens significantly.
Airlines seeking single-source fuel that doesn't require separate logistics infrastructure will favor suppliers who can deliver complete, drop-in-ready products. For ethanol producers shifting toward aviation fuel, this means the technical standards are evolving as feedstock economics improve.

What This Means for the Industry
Ethanol producers facing declining gasoline markets can pivot toward higher-value SAF applications using adaptable existing infrastructure. Refineries can address stranded asset risk through equipment repurposing and gradual transition via coprocessing. Current SAF producers gain options to improve byproduct economics and meet evolving technical standards.
Success will require specific capabilities: feedstock flexibility to adapt as market conditions shift, infrastructure compatibility to minimize capital requirements, aromatic production capability to meet emerging specifications, and demonstrated economic performance rather than theoretical projections.

Capturing the Moment
The convergence of declining gasoline demand, available infrastructure, feedstock diversification and evolving technical standards creates a finite window. The next five years are key. Ethanol pricing and availability will stabilize as markets adjust to the new equilibrium. Refinery assets will find alternative uses or face permanent shutdown. ASTM standards will advance with or without specific technologies positioned to meet them.
Ground transportation's electric transition isn't threatening the liquid fuels industry—it's redirecting it. The infrastructure, supply chain and processing expertise that powered a century of automotive transportation can enable the future of aviation. But only if the right technologies are positioned to capture the opportunity.
The winners won't be those with the most innovative chemistry or the largest capital raises. They will be those that combine feedstock flexibility, infrastructure compatibility and economic performance to meet the moment when market forces align.

Author: Alexei Beltyukov
CEO, Universal Fuel Technologies

Alexei Beltyukov.css-7jxktu{position:absolute;bottom:0px;left:0px;right:0px;height:3px;border-radius:3px;background-color:var(--chakra-colors-brandBlack);}

Latest Articles

Sustainable Aviation Fuel: The Hidden Winner in Electric Vehicle Economics

Alexei Beltyukov